Navigating Turbulent Times: U.S.-China relations during the second Trump administration
In the aftermath of the November 2024 U.S. presidential election, U.S.-China relations have become increasingly fraught with complex and interconnected challenges. With tensions rising, many are questioning whether the relationship between the two nations is headed for greater turbulence and what strategies leaders in Washington and Beijing can adopt to ensure stability and resilience in the years ahead.
This critical discussion took center stage at the conference “Navigating Turbulent Times: U.S.-China Relations in the Next Four Years,” co-hosted by the Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation USA Foundation (CAPRI USA), the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia, and the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.
The conference opened with remarks from Wu Xinbo, Dean of the Institute of International Studies and Director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, and William J. Antholis, Director and CEO of the Miller Center. Prof. Wu shared insights from a Chinese perspective, interpreting Trump’s reelection as reflective of entrenched political, economic, and social trends in the United States. He emphasized the potential implications for bilateral relations, noting China’s strategic need to balance assertiveness with caution. Prof. Antholis offered an analysis of U.S. foreign policy under a second Trump administration, describing how the U.S. views China as its primary strategic competitor in areas such as security, trade, investment, and technology.
The first panel examined the domestic drivers of foreign policy in the U.S. and China and reflected on lessons learned over the past eight years. Prof. Miller explored the historical patterns that shape U.S. foreign policy, likening it to a pendulum swinging between ideological aspirations and realist strategies. He highlighted how the U.S. identity as both a former colony and a global superpower informs its policy decisions. Prof. Wei analyzed the domestic influences on Chinese foreign policy, including media narratives, national identity, and leadership dynamics, which have contributed to China’s more assertive stance while maintaining a focus on stable bilateral relations to avoid a new Cold War.
Prof. Riley offered a unique perspective by discussing lessons from the Trump and Biden administrations through the lens of global health policy. She emphasized the success of initiatives like Operation Warp Speed and underscored the necessity of U.S.-China cooperation in addressing global health challenges despite concerns over competition in technology and resources. Prof. Pan focused on cultural and educational exchanges, discussing how U.S. perceptions of such exchanges have shifted since 2017 due to fears of China’s growing influence. She argued that fostering mutual understanding through tourism, education, and climate change cooperation remains vital for stabilizing the relationship.
The second panel turned its attention to the evolving foreign policy priorities of the two countries and the prospects for continuity and change in the relationship. Prof. Harding highlighted the importance of rebuilding trust through joint assessments of past failures and practical cooperation, proposing goodwill gestures as a pathway to restore stability. Prof. Wu outlined several scenarios for U.S.-China relations under Trump 2.0, emphasizing the importance of damage control, financial cooperation, and leveraging opportunities to strengthen China’s self-reliance and global alliances.
Prof. Rudman adopted a more optimistic tone, urging both nations to collaborate on pressing global issues such as climate change and AI governance. She emphasized the need for deeper engagement between stakeholders in both countries to balance competition with cooperation. Prof. Song examined the economic dimensions of the relationship, particularly the impact of the U.S.-China trade war. He noted that while tariff escalation remains a risk, domestic pressures in both countries and China’s growing technological autonomy may limit further conflict.
The conference underscored the urgency of fostering strategic dialogue, rebuilding mutual trust, and pursuing innovative solutions to navigate the increasingly turbulent landscape of U.S.-China relations. As both nations grapple with heightened competition and shared global challenges, the importance of engagement, understanding, and cooperation remains paramount.
Speakers
Panel 1: Domestic drivers of the U.S.-China relationship: issues and prospects
Moderator: Syaru Shirley Lin, Research Professor, Miller Center, University of Virginia; President, Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation USA Foundation
Scott C. Miller, Director, Project on Democracy and Capitalism, Miller Center, University of Virginia
Wei Zongyou, Professor, Center for American Studies, Fudan University
Margaret Foster Riley, Dorothy Danforth Compton Professor, Miller Center, University of Virginia; Member of the Board, Center for Asia-Pacific Resilience and Innovation USA Foundation
Pan Yaling, Adjunct Professor, Center for American Studies, Fudan University
Panel 2: Prospects for U.S.-China Relations
Moderator: Xin Qiang, Professor and Deputy Director, Center for American Studies, Fudan University
Harry Harding, Faculty Senior Fellow, Miller Center, University of Virginia
Wu Xinbo, Dean, Institute of International Studies; Director, Center for American Studies, Fudan University
Mara Rudman, James R. Schlesinger Distinguished Professor, Miller Center, University of Virginia
Song Guoyou, Deputy Director, Center for American Studies, Fudan University
Date
Jan 8, 2024
Location
Fudan University, Shanghai, China
